In today’s episode, I will comment on the survey I posted a week ago on LinkedIn about the World Economic Forum predictions made in 2015 of disruptive innovation and its likelihood to be in place by 2025.
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Exercising your Thought Leadership Skills
As I commented in Episode 31, the best way to develop Thought Leadership skills is by practicing, accepting the challenge of imagining what-if scenarios, understanding the concepts behind multiple scenarios and barriers, and providing humble opinions about possible outcomes.
As we talked about technology and Innovation last week, I proposed to the audience to practice Thought Leadership skills by analyzing a controversial case: a World Economic Forum Survey dated 2015 that evaluated the likelihood of having implantable mobile phones commercially by 2025.
2015 WEF results vs. 2022 LinkedIn flash survey results
Back then, out of 800 leaders who participated, 82% thought there was a good chance of having implanted mobile phones by 2025.
I did the same survey last week, asking an audience of more than 2000 contacts, and 539 contacts decided to evaluate the scenario.
Seven of you responded, and I appreciate your engagement deeply!
Surprisingly, 29% of you thought there was a chance for this to happen by 2025, and 71% thought there was a chance for it to occur by 2030.
Why the discrepancy?
It is essential to be careful here; please read this as a personal opinion. Our goal is for you to develop your own opinion. (exercising your Thought Leader skills, right?)
I. The further the goal, the higher the uncertainty:
In 2015, Thought Leaders made their forecasts based on limited information, but also they were influenced by tons of “good news” when they attended the WEF annual conference. As we approach the due date, the probability of any forecast is closer to reality. The uncertainty levels play both ways; people tend to be polarized in two extreme positions, so the second lesson learned is
II. Thought Leaders, like AI-based systems, tend to bias judgment based on parallel information related to the case they analyze.
This is a tough one, I know. Please consider this a personal opinion.
Imagine this, if you are a thought leader participating in an event full of subject matter experts, being fed with good news for 5-days, and realizing great opportunities, you tend to be overly optimistic, i.e., a case with a probability of 50% is considered a “Yes”, instead of being penalized as a “No” for lack of evidence.
As we get closer to the due date, the space for imagination is shorter, and there is a natural correction, making the 50% be considered a No.
Ok, Jose, I got that, but what is your taking on this disruptive event?
Current trends in implantable phones
Since 2015, major technology innovations have occurred in the right direction, but I still think there are significant obstacles to having commercially implanted mobile phones in the near term.
The way I see this disruptive innovation, there are three dimensions to analyze: Technology, Business, and Society (Ethics).
Technology:
Much progress in this area, miniaturization (Moore’s law), and recent disruptive technologies, such as RFID and IoT, are essential players. Still, the recent success stories are based on communication using low power consumption and short distances, such as medical appliances (Capsule Endoscopy) or ID Tag Devices.
Another important milestone is the introduction of eSIM technology: a new way to identify a mobile device without needing a SIM card.
I think the most critical challenges to address are two: (1) Antennas – the current solution is an inch long, and (2) Batteries – the current solution is several square inches big.
Probably an accelerator would be the current research on Electric vehicle batteries, but I don’t see this happening before 2030—just an opinion.
Business:
Imagine that you want a new device; how is the device going to look? How is it going to be implanted?
Like a piercing? Or like a microcapsule to be injected via an intradermal shot?
Can you imagine waiting at a mobile phone retail store to get a piercing or an intradermal shot today?
Hmm, not likely.
See, there are multiple business aspects to consider: This is just one aspect.
That is the beauty of Digital Transformation; it is a continuous innovation process fueled by imagination and customer preferences.
My take is that I don’t see this happening by 2030.
Society / Ethics:
This is the most controversial of the aspects.
Customer preferences (having a device implanted), privacy (being monitored 24×7), and how to accommodate your personal preferences are all significant challenges. In addition, imagine going from a personal device you interact with via a display to a new device with no display.
I think that businesses will explore the human aspect of technology adoption well before having a new device commercially available.
It’s challenging to forecast when this controversy will be resolved.
I don’t see that happening by 2030.
Closing statement
Am I a Thought Leader?
Yes, but I think what makes me a Thought Leader is that I am willing to call myself a beginner. One with many years of exposure to new technologies, innovation, and disruption, just like you, my dear subscriber.
I am not shy about saying “I don’t know”, being willing to learn from others, eager to share their opinions, and sharing my learnings along the way.
From time to time, it is necessary to do a little research looking for evidence to avoid sharing a biased-emotional opinion related to innovation and disruptive changes.
Good enough?
I hope you like this dreaming together exercise.
What are your thoughts on the subjects raised in this edition of the Digital Acceleration Newsletter?
Share them in the comments below, and if you have ideas about other topics you like to see covered in this newsletter, feel free to add those suggestions.